Until 20 years ago the suburbs around New York City were strongly Republican. Now they are strongly Democratic. In the area I would consider the NYC metro area there are 30 Congressional Districts. These are NY-(01-19), NJ-(04-13), and CT-04. (I know, it’s debatable what is and what isn’t.) Only 5 of the 30 are represented by Republicans: NY-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NJ-07, and NJ-04. Amazingly, there are 6 districts in this area that have a PVI of D+30 or better.
All across the country, suburbs are trending Democratic. Older suburbs are now reliably Democratic. However it looks like some of the suburban areas around New York City may have peaked in around 2000. Some of these “traditionally Republican” areas may be trending Republican again.
For a reference to the names of counties, see this map provided by Wikipedia.
The Bad News
| County | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staten Island | 50/42 | 43/56 | 48/52 |
| Nassau County | 56/36 | 52/47 | 54/45 |
| Suffolk County | 52/39 | 49/49 | 53/47 |
| Rockland County | 54/37 | 49/50 | 53/47 |
| Bergen County | 55/42 | 52/47 | 54/45 |
| Sussex County | 37/58 | 35/64 | 39/59 |
| Monmouth County | 50/46 | 45/55 | 47/51 |
| Ocean County | 47/49 | 39/60 | 40/58 |
The Good News
| County | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westchester County | 57/35 | 58/40 | 63/36 |
| Orange County | 45/47 | 44/55 | 52/47 |
| Fairfield County | 52/43 | 51/47 | 59/40 |
| Essex County | 71/26 | 70/29 | 76/23 |
| Somerset County | 47/50 | 47/52 | 53/46 |
| Morris County | 43/54 | 42/58 | 45/53 |
| Hunterdon County | 38/57 | 39/60 | 43/56 |
| Mercer County | 61/34 | 61/38 | 67/31 |
Some of the biggest Democratic losses at the presidential level from 2000 to 2004 came from the suburban counties around New York City. It’s tempting to dismiss these as short-term losses, and blame them on September 11. But we did worse in some of these counties in 2008 than in 2000, so this could be the beginning of a long-term trend. If we don’t take it seriously it could eventually cost us elections.
NY-13 and NY-03 currently have PVI‘s of about D+1. After they are recalculated to consider 2008 results, they will probably be about R+4.
Of the 5 Republican-held districts, we should strongly contest these 2 in 2010:
NY-03 will be an open race in 2010. Its Republican incumbent, Peter King, will vacate the seat in order to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. This race is a toss-up, depending on what the political situation is like in 2010. It’s tempting to take it for granted, because Tim Bishop and Steve Israel were able to flip NY-01 and NY-02 earlier this decade. If we win it’s because we had an excellent candidate and and excellent campaign that earned every last vote.
Meanwhile, Republican-held district NJ-07 is trending in our direction. NJ-07 was designed to be Republican, but now it’s a swing district that Obama won. I’m on the record stating we should try again in 2010 to win NJ-07.
Cross-posted to Daily Kos.
NJ-11, my home district, is pretty much hopeless. Since I live in the Essex portion, redistricting into a Democratic CD is a strong possibility. NJ is slated to lose a House seat in 2012. North Jersey is growing much slower than south and central Jersey. I’m betting that the computer geeks in redistricting put Sussex in with Morris and have Garrett going mano-a mano with NJ-11s Rodney Frelinghuysen in a GOP steel cage match. (Unfortunately, the red meat Garrett with a Progressive Punch score of 4 would probably beat the moderate Rodney.
Four of the five are possible depending on what Chris Smith does (NJ-4). We know he has kids in college and is scrambling for money (getting the in-state rate for VA residents). He’ll only be 57 but he will have 30 years in the House and was shoved aside by the Bushies repeatedly. If Chris Christie, media creature extroadinaire, wasn’t running he’d be a strong possibility for Governor. If big time private sector money was actually available, he just might vamoose.
NJ-5 was a major disappointment. Dennis Schulman was well funded and still ran behind Obama despite the super extreme voting record and lousy constituent service of E. Scott Garrett (does the “E” stand for error). Garret pulled out all the standard Republican tricks and this time it worked. Schulman was a good candidate but in-fighting within the Bergen County Democratic Organization (BCDO) was no help. For the first time, Garrett’s percentage went up (by 1 point).
9/11 put the brakes on Democratic gains in the area. A lot of otherwise staunchy Democratic voters have become hawkish on foreign policy and more neocon in national security…and they’re staying there. That’s why Hillary ran more hawkish.
Also there was a much overlooked PUMA factor in the area, where Hillary voters skipped the top of the ballot. That’s why turnout wasn’t much higher in places like Long Island and the margins didn’t move much.
Look at the NYC results too…the results didn’t change much, especially in Brooklyn and Queens
They all, even those in the good news category, show a Republican bounce in 2004.
I am not sure why Sussex County is considered bad news, as it bounced right back in 2008 to where it had been in 2000.
They all showed an increase, in both the good news and bad news counties, from 2004 to 2008.
Have any of our congressional members seen any drop? The Democrat in New York to have any scare is Arcuri, and he’s not in the NYC area at all. Bishop got the lowest percentage amongst New York’s downstate delegation, but he still got 58%. If I recall correctly, his first win was a very close one, and Israel didn’t even get 50%, and they are both doing fine even in 2008. Maybe it took scandal to knock out their incumbent, but McMahon winning at 61% is a show of actually Democratic strength.
In 2000, Republicans were still easily holding onto Bishop’s seat, and Sue Kelly and Benjamin Gilman were still winning their suburban seat by large margins for the GOP. Peter King won easily, but so was Fossella before his fall from grace.
Lazio was winning with over 60% in his elections before leaving an open seat. Forbes was winning just as easily when he was a Republican. Carolyn McCarthy dropped to 53% her second election, and then rebounded.
Long Island still has more Republicans than Democrats, and, with the exception of Westchester, Lazio still took all of the suburban counties, as well as Staten Island, in 2000. Pataki won a plurality of Queens in 2002 on top of that.
Of course, across the border, we finally knocked off Chris Shays.
I don’t think we’ve peaked yet. There are plenty of New Yorkers here to answer this one if I am incorrect in so concluding.
The 2000 numbers reflect that a lot of conservative Democrats showed up for Al Gore one last time and went Republican after that. They will tell you it was 9/11 or immigration or abortion/gay marriage or something of that sort. But Gallup shows the country 55/43 in favor of Bush prevailing in the week after Election Day 2000. Those folks were simply ready to go.
The 2004 and 2008 numbers show the conservative Democrats gone- around 6-7% of the national electorate, perhaps. But partly compensating is the nationwide net 1% per year shift of support to liberal, Left, and moderate Democrats as young voters replace old ones. So there is a substantial dip after 2000 but recovery or better by 2008. New York suburbia varies greatly in composition, of course, so parts vary a lot from national averages.
It seems to me that Democratic gains around NYC are small for the same reasons as in NJ and Pennsylvania: the local and state level Democrats are still pretty unregenerate, equal or only marginally better in quality than their competition to average voters.
Peter King’s seat is a 51/49 nailbiter district in ’10 with a lot of economic misery and it’s quite possible it gets chopped up in redistricting in 2012 in any case. I suspect the real action in the region in ’10 is further down the ticket, in state Senate races mostly on Long Island and in the middle Hudson Valley.
Most of this looks like statistical noise. A one point difference here or there from one election to the other doesn’t really look like much to me. Most have recovered to something above or near their 2000 performances. And even some of the bad news counties are trending our way.
You also gotta remember that a Jew from a neighboring state was on the ticket in 2000. Plus, as has been stated
Could be numerous reasons.
1. Ethnic voting. Italians (which I am part) may in some cases be reluctant to vote for someone who is black. Some of the areas in which Obama struggled in brooklyn were heavily Italian, Long Island has a large Italian population as well.
2. 9/11 & McCain. The 04 numbers likely had a bit of a 9/11 effect. Back in 2000 McCain was very strong on Long Island, even though the Primary in NY was held when it was pretty much certain Bush was going to be the nominee. McCain won both Nassau & Suffolk in the Primaries, the only other county in the state McCain won was Manhattan (which has very few Republicans).
3. Gun Control, Gun control is a major issue on Long Island, it is possible the focus on Gun control may have gotten some people who wouldn’t typically to vote Democratic to support Gore and now that Gun Control is less of an issue they have gotten back to voting more Republican.
On the bright side things have gotten much better for the Democrats on the local level since then. The voter registration has greatly improved for the Dems, the GOP’s margin in Suffolk is much smaller than it was in 2000, and the Dems now have an advantage in Suffolk. 4 of the 5 Congress seats on LI are Democratic. They hold majorities in both the Nassay & Suffolk legislature (though they did take the Nassau legis back in 99). Both Nassau & Suffolk have Democratic County Exec’s, both have Democratic DA’s. The State Senate which use to be all Republican on LI has gone from 9-0, to 7-2. Winning one seat in a Special Election in 07, the other knocking off an incumbent last year (while almost knocking off another one in a surprise. Many of the GOP State Senators on LI are long term incumbents whose seats have a decent chance of flipping as soon as they go.